Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will face off in the contest for president — an election that will be decided by the Electoral College. The system awards Electoral College votes to each state based on the number of members of Congress who represent that state. The winner needs 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency.
Because of the Electoral College system, a small number of states are considered battleground states, the locations that are competitive enough that either Harris or Trump could win there.
Electoral College Ratings
NBC News' Decision Desk characterizes the competitiveness of many of the races to be held in November. Several factors are considered in determining the ratings, including historical electoral results, election polling, analysis of voter registration data and early voting (when applicable), political advertising data, as well as qualitative assessments of the specific candidates.
270 to win
93Toss Up
1Lean DEM
34Likely DEM
191Solid DEM
93Toss Up
0Lean GOP
71Likely GOP
148Solid GOP
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Battleground states
Arizona
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
+
15
D
+
15
R
1992
2020
Biden won by 0.3 pts in 2020
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Republican Party | 2% |
| 1996 | Democratic Party | 2.2% |
| 2000 | Republican Party | 6.3% |
| 2004 | Republican Party | 10.5% |
| 2008 | Republican Party | 8.5% |
| 2012 | Republican Party | 9.1% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 3.5% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 0.3% |
| Biden won by 0.3 pts in 2020 |
Why it's important
Donald Trump won Arizona in 2016 by nearly 4 percentage points, but lost the state to Joe Biden in 2020 by less than half a percentage point. Polls this year have found Trump and Kamala Harris locked in a statistical tie.
Georgia
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
+
15
D
+
15
R
1992
2020
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Democratic Party | 0.6% |
| 1996 | Republican Party | 1.2% |
| 2000 | Republican Party | 11.7% |
| 2004 | Republican Party | 16.6% |
| 2008 | Republican Party | 5.2% |
| 2012 | Republican Party | 7.8% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 5.1% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 0.2% |
| Biden won by 0.2 pts in 2020 |
Why it's important
Donald Trump won Georgia in 2016 by about 5 percentage points, but lost there to Joe Biden in 2020 by less than 12,000 votes. The race this year is a toss-up, with Trump and Harris locked in a statistical tie in polls.
Michigan
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
+
15
D
+
15
R
1992
2020
Biden +2.8
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Democratic Party | 7.4% |
| 1996 | Democratic Party | 13.2% |
| 2000 | Democratic Party | 5.1% |
| 2004 | Democratic Party | 3.4% |
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 16.5% |
| 2012 | Democratic Party | 9.5% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 0.2% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 2.8% |
| Biden won by 2.8 pts in 2020 |
Why it's important
Donald Trump won Michigan in 2016, surprising Democrats in a state Republicans hadn’t won since 1988. Joe Biden won there in 2020 – besting Trump by 3 percentage points. With Kamala Harris and Trump in a statistical tie, it is a “toss-up” headed into Election Day.
Nebraska District 2
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
+
34
D
+
34
R
1992
2020
Trump +19.1
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Republican Party | 17.2% |
| 1996 | Republican Party | 18.7% |
| 2000 | Republican Party | 29% |
| 2004 | Republican Party | 33.2% |
| 2008 | Republican Party | 14.9% |
| 2012 | Republican Party | 21.8% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 25% |
| 2020 | Republican Party | 19.1% |
| Trump won by 19.1 pts in 2020 |
Why it's important
Nebraska awards one Electoral College vote each to its two congressional districts, and the 2nd District has split from the rest of the reliably conservative state. Donald Trump won the district in 2016, but lost it to Joe Biden in 2020. The district is leaning in polls toward the Democrat Kamala Harris this year.
Nevada
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
+
15
D
+
15
R
1992
2020
Biden +2.4
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Democratic Party | 2.6% |
| 1996 | Democratic Party | 1% |
| 2000 | Republican Party | 3.5% |
| 2004 | Republican Party | 2.6% |
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 12.5% |
| 2012 | Democratic Party | 6.7% |
| 2016 | Democratic Party | 2.4% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 2.4% |
| Biden won by 2.4 pts in 2020 |
Why it's important
The Senate race in Nevada is between Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen and Republican Sam Brown, a military veteran who the party hopes can ride Republican support in the presidential election to a victory in a swing state.
North Carolina
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
+
15
D
+
15
R
1992
2020
Trump +1.3
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Republican Party | 0.8% |
| 1996 | Republican Party | 4.7% |
| 2000 | Republican Party | 12.8% |
| 2004 | Republican Party | 12.4% |
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 0.3% |
| 2012 | Republican Party | 2% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 3.7% |
| 2020 | Republican Party | 1.3% |
| Trump won by 1.3 pts in 2020 |
Why it's important
North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 2008, but Kamala Harris’ campaign has targeted it as a state she can win, buoyed by its large Black population. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by 3 percentage points and in 2020 by 1 percentage point.
Pennsylvania
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
+
15
D
+
15
R
1992
2020
Biden +1.2
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Democratic Party | 9% |
| 1996 | Democratic Party | 9.2% |
| 2000 | Democratic Party | 4.2% |
| 2004 | Democratic Party | 2.5% |
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 10.3% |
| 2012 | Democratic Party | 5.4% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 0.7% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 1.2% |
| Biden won by 1.2 pts in 2020 |
Why it's important
Pennsylvania is emerging as the most critical battleground state in the 2024 election. Donald Trump won the state by less than 1 percentage point in 2016 and lost it by about 1 percentage point in 2020. Kamala Harris has remained competitive there, and the state is classified as a “toss-up.”
Wisconsin
Presidential results, 1992-2020
Percentage point margin
+
15
D
+
15
R
1992
2020
Biden +0.6
| Year | Winning party | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 1992 | Democratic Party | 4.4% |
| 1996 | Democratic Party | 10.3% |
| 2000 | Democratic Party | 0.2% |
| 2004 | Democratic Party | 0.4% |
| 2008 | Democratic Party | 13.9% |
| 2012 | Democratic Party | 6.8% |
| 2016 | Republican Party | 0.8% |
| 2020 | Democratic Party | 0.6% |
| Biden won by 0.6 pts in 2020 |
Why it's important
Wisconsin is a “toss-up” battleground state that has swung between Democrats and Republicans. Donald Trump won there in 2016 by less than 1 percentage point. Joe Biden won there in 2020, also by less than 1 percentage point.
National Early Voting
2,763,286 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally
Filter by:
54%
30%
16%
Registered Democrats
Registered Republicans
Other
Data not available
18,639,242 mail-in and early in-person votes requested nationally
Filter by:
48%
30%
22%
Registered Democrats
Registered Republicans
Other
Data not available
Past Presidential Election Results
2020 Results
Democrats
Republicans
Electoral College Results, 1992-2020
2020Biden
WINNER
306
232
Trump
2016H. Clinton
227
304
Trump
2012Obama
332
206
Romney
2008Obama
365
173
McCain
2004Kerry
251
286
G.W. Bush
2000Gore
266
271
G.W. Bush
1996B. Clinton
379
159
Dole
1992B. Clinton
370
168
G.H.W. Bush
Vote Margin by State in the 2020 Presidential Election
Circle size represents the number electoral votes in that state.
| District of Columbia | |
|---|---|
| 3 EVs | +86.7 D |
| Biden | 92.1% |
| Trump | 5.4% |
| Vermont | |
|---|---|
| 3 EVs | +35.1 D |
| Biden | 66.1% |
| Trump | 30.7% |
| Maryland | |
|---|---|
| 10 EVs | +33.2 D |
| Biden | 65.4% |
| Trump | 32.2% |
| Massachusetts | |
|---|---|
| 11 EVs | +33.2 D |
| Biden | 65.6% |
| Trump | 32.1% |
| Hawaii | |
|---|---|
| 4 EVs | +29.2 D |
| Biden | 63.7% |
| Trump | 34.3% |
| California | |
|---|---|
| 55 EVs | +29.2 D |
| Biden | 63.5% |
| Trump | 34.3% |
| New York | |
|---|---|
| 29 EVs | +22.9 D |
| Biden | 60.9% |
| Trump | 37.7% |
| Rhode Island | |
|---|---|
| 4 EVs | +20.8 D |
| Biden | 59.4% |
| Trump | 38.6% |
| Connecticut | |
|---|---|
| 7 EVs | +20.1 D |
| Biden | 59.3% |
| Trump | 39.2% |
| Washington | |
|---|---|
| 12 EVs | +19.2 D |
| Biden | 58% |
| Trump | 38.8% |
| Delaware | |
|---|---|
| 3 EVs | +19.0 D |
| Biden | 58.8% |
| Trump | 39.8% |
| Illinois | |
|---|---|
| 20 EVs | +17.0 D |
| Biden | 57.5% |
| Trump | 40.6% |
| Oregon | |
|---|---|
| 7 EVs | +16.1 D |
| Biden | 56.5% |
| Trump | 40.4% |
| New Jersey | |
|---|---|
| 14 EVs | +15.9 D |
| Biden | 57.1% |
| Trump | 41.3% |
| Colorado | |
|---|---|
| 9 EVs | +13.4 D |
| Biden | 55.4% |
| Trump | 41.9% |
| New Mexico | |
|---|---|
| 5 EVs | +10.8 D |
| Biden | 54.3% |
| Trump | 43.5% |
| Virginia | |
|---|---|
| 13 EVs | +10.1 D |
| Biden | 54.1% |
| Trump | 44% |
| Maine | |
|---|---|
| 4 EVs | +9.0 D |
| Biden | 53.1% |
| Trump | 44% |
| New Hampshire | |
|---|---|
| 4 EVs | +7.4 D |
| Biden | 52.7% |
| Trump | 45.4% |
| Minnesota | |
|---|---|
| 10 EVs | +7.1 D |
| Biden | 52.4% |
| Trump | 45.3% |
| National | |
|---|---|
| +4.5 D | |
| Biden | 51.3% |
| Trump | 46.8% |
| Nevada | |
|---|---|
| 6 EVs | +2.4 D |
| Biden | 50.1% |
| Trump | 47.7% |
| Pennsylvania | |
|---|---|
| 20 EVs | +1.2 D |
| Biden | 50% |
| Trump | 48.8% |
| Michigan | |
|---|---|
| 16 EVs | +2.8 D |
| Biden | 50.6% |
| Trump | 47.8% |
| Wisconsin | |
|---|---|
| 10 EVs | +0.6 D |
| Biden | 49.4% |
| Trump | 48.8% |
| Georgia | |
|---|---|
| 16 EVs | +0.2 D |
| Biden | 49.5% |
| Trump | 49.2% |
| Arizona | |
|---|---|
| 11 EVs | +0.3 D |
| Biden | 49.4% |
| Trump | 49.1% |
| North Carolina | |
|---|---|
| 15 EVs | +1.3 R |
| Trump | 49.9% |
| Biden | 48.6% |
| Florida | |
|---|---|
| 29 EVs | +3.4 R |
| Trump | 51.2% |
| Biden | 47.9% |
| Texas | |
|---|---|
| 38 EVs | +5.6 R |
| Trump | 52.1% |
| Biden | 46.5% |
| Ohio | |
|---|---|
| 18 EVs | +8.0 R |
| Trump | 53.3% |
| Biden | 45.2% |
| Iowa | |
|---|---|
| 6 EVs | +8.2 R |
| Trump | 53.1% |
| Biden | 44.9% |
| Alaska | |
|---|---|
| 3 EVs | +10.1 R |
| Trump | 52.8% |
| Biden | 42.8% |
| South Carolina | |
|---|---|
| 9 EVs | +11.7 R |
| Trump | 55.1% |
| Biden | 43.4% |
| Kansas | |
|---|---|
| 6 EVs | +14.7 R |
| Trump | 56.1% |
| Biden | 41.5% |
| Missouri | |
|---|---|
| 10 EVs | +15.4 R |
| Trump | 56.8% |
| Biden | 41.4% |
| Indiana | |
|---|---|
| 11 EVs | +16.1 R |
| Trump | 57% |
| Biden | 41% |
| Montana | |
|---|---|
| 3 EVs | +16.4 R |
| Trump | 56.9% |
| Biden | 40.5% |
| Mississippi | |
|---|---|
| 6 EVs | +16.5 R |
| Trump | 57.5% |
| Biden | 41% |
| Louisiana | |
|---|---|
| 8 EVs | +18.6 R |
| Trump | 58.5% |
| Biden | 39.9% |
| Nebraska | |
|---|---|
| 5 EVs | +19.1 R |
| Trump | 58.2% |
| Biden | 39.2% |
| Utah | |
|---|---|
| 6 EVs | +20.5 R |
| Trump | 58.1% |
| Biden | 37.6% |
| Tennessee | |
|---|---|
| 11 EVs | +23.2 R |
| Trump | 60.7% |
| Biden | 37.5% |
| Alabama | |
|---|---|
| 9 EVs | +25.5 R |
| Trump | 62% |
| Biden | 36.6% |
| Kentucky | |
|---|---|
| 8 EVs | +25.9 R |
| Trump | 62.1% |
| Biden | 36.2% |
| South Dakota | |
|---|---|
| 3 EVs | +26.2 R |
| Trump | 61.8% |
| Biden | 35.6% |
| Arkansas | |
|---|---|
| 6 EVs | +27.6 R |
| Trump | 62.4% |
| Biden | 34.8% |
| Idaho | |
|---|---|
| 4 EVs | +30.8 R |
| Trump | 63.8% |
| Biden | 33.1% |
| Oklahoma | |
|---|---|
| 7 EVs | +33.1 R |
| Trump | 65.4% |
| Biden | 32.3% |
| North Dakota | |
|---|---|
| 3 EVs | +33.4 R |
| Trump | 65.1% |
| Biden | 31.8% |
| West Virginia | |
|---|---|
| 5 EVs | +38.9 R |
| Trump | 68.6% |
| Biden | 29.7% |
| Wyoming | |
|---|---|
| 3 EVs | +43.1 R |
| Trump | 69.9% |
| Biden | 26.6% |
The expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information on the number of votes cast early as well as information provided to our vote reporters on Election Day from county election officials. The figure can change as NBC News gathers new information.
Source: National Election Pool (NEP)
2024 election results
- Alabama
- Alaska
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Delaware
- D.C.
- Florida
- Georgia
- Hawaii
- Idaho
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Maine
- Maryland
- Massachusetts
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Utah
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
- West Virginia
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
